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Why is my dog's picture on this post?

Well, because my dog's name is Darwin (for the HMS Beagle! cute, huh?) and this post is about the evolution of computers. The IBM supercomputer known as Watson just beat the pants off of Brad Rutter and Ken Jennings in a two-game Jeopardy tournament, mostly because it/he (I think I will say he because IBM gave Watson a male voice) was super fast on the buzzer. The humans put up a better fight in the second game than in the first, but Watson had too big a lead for either of them to pull off a victory.

So, is Watson an Artificial Intelligence? I don't think so. He has been stuffed with facts and designed to be able to parse English words and phrases to try to figure out what fact is being sought, but for one thing, he's not really thinking, and for another he sometimes misses wildly. His answer to a clue about a specific brand of shampoo was “butter.”

The first game's Final Jeopardy illustrates Watson's limitations. The category was US Cities and the clue was that this city's largest airport was named after a World War II hero and its second largest was named after a WWII battle. The answer was Chicago, and both Ken and Brad got it right. They didn't really need to know that O'Hare was a war hero (I didn't know that!). They just needed to think of a city where the largest airport has a person's name and the second largest has a place name that could be a battle. Watson guessed Toronto. If Watson knew the airport there was named for Lester B. Pearson, he should have known the man didn't fight in WWII. And he definitely should have known Toronto isn't a US city!

What Watson reminds me of is a very good, very old Spencer Tracy/Katherine Hepburn movie called Desk Set, about a TV network's library (except they call it just the reference department, because otherwise Katherine Hepburn would be playing a librarian, and we can't have that!) that is “computerized” by something called EMERAC that looks suspiciously like an early computer known as ENIAC. The movie is hilarious and brilliantly clever except that the writers knew next to nothing about computers. A small stack of cards is supposed to contain all of Bartlett's Quotations; that would have taken a roomful of Hollerith cards. And they had a console where people typed plain English questions into Emerac and got plain English answers back.

So, in a way, Watson has evolved to what we thought we had in 1957! Besides that, Ken has a much better sense of humor. -)

Addendum Ken Jennings reflects on playing against a computer in Slate, and Tor.com has a post about why Watson is so important ..

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( 4 comments — Leave a comment )
mindyklasky
Feb. 17th, 2011 03:30 am (UTC)
I thought Ken was *great* - he did a wonderful chat on the Washington Post website yesterday. There was also a very informative NOVA show tonight, about the refining of Watson's protocols. (Most of his advances were accomplished through "machine learning" - e.g., showing him millions of versions of the letter "A", so that he could recognize an "A" in a font he'd never seen.)

I don't think he's artificially intelligent until he can *create* an "A" in a font he hasn't seen before. Or, by extension, until he can *write* the Jeopardy questions, rather than "just" answer them.

And what car *does* the King of the Watusi drive? (I love DESK SET...)
karen_w_newton
Feb. 17th, 2011 12:47 pm (UTC)
I loved the story about why they made Watson— so he could be another Ken Jennings! And I would love to see a rematch where they gave Watson closer to human reflexes as far as pressing the buzzer.

I believe it was a gold plated Cadillac, wasn't it? Desk Set is a favorite, in spite of the way the writers avoid the terms "library" and "librarian." The only time the word library is even mentioned is when Kate Hepburn's character explains she took a (that's "a" as in one) library science class at Columbia. The only worse treatment is in It's a Wonderful Life where Donna Reed's miserable alternate existence is as (gasp) the town librarian!
mindyklasky
Feb. 17th, 2011 06:59 pm (UTC)
I just remembered "Cadillac"; I didn't remember the gold-plating...

My first library boss *hated* Donna Reed with a passion, because of that role. Me, I caught myself referring to my staff once as my "girls" and I realized that I was getting to live out my dream of being Katherine Hepburn :-)

As for Watson's reflexes - I would change the timing of his buzz-in so that it's directly tied to his confidence level. If he's 50% sure of his answer, then he can buzz in at 50% of his "perfect" time. Of course, the contest wasn't to see if we can slow down a machine to compete fairly...
karen_w_newton
Feb. 17th, 2011 07:24 pm (UTC)
If you read the Ken Jennings commentary, it's clear that the IBM folks were clearly hoping for the humans to lose big. I do wonder how much IBM paid to do the shows, and whether the prize money came from them or the network.
( 4 comments — Leave a comment )

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